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Probability Reversal and the Disjunction Effect in Reasoning Systems
[article]
2017
arXiv
pre-print
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Examples of this are Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect where the beliefs about the data change once it is presented or aggregated differently. ...
We analyze the disjunction effect from the perspective of the belief as a quantum vector. ...
In some situations, such as Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect, these judgments come with paradoxical reversal when data is aggregated at different levels. ...
arXiv:1709.04029v1
fatcat:26nuvihtergoraqgfjnbcndiby
Are People Naïve Probability Theorists? A Further Examination of the Probability Theory + Variation Model
2014
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
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Specifically, noise was negatively correlated with semantic coherence and conjunction and disjunction fallacies increased when order effects produced more noise in conjunctions and disjunctions. ...
Experiment 1 compared the PTV model to a configural weighted averaging model in joint probability judgment and found more support for the PTV model in diagnostic cases. ...
The models make divergent predictions for conjunction fallacies, disjunction fallacies, and semantic coherence for the reasons detailed in Errors and Noise. ...
doi:10.1002/bdm.1818
fatcat:sxvxjdkh4vccnf254rfj5pnwmy
Quantitative causal selection patterns in token causation
2019
PLoS ONE
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These effects, which play a major role in several prominent theories of token causation, have largely been studied through qualitative manipulations of the prior probabilities. ...
Yet, there is good reason to think that people's causal judgments are on a continuum-and relatively little is known about how these judgments vary quantitatively as the prior probabilities change. ...
Acknowledgments We thank Joshua Knobe, Thomas Icard, and the Moral Psychology Research Lab for their advice and assistance.
Author Contributions ...
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0219704
pmid:31369584
pmcid:PMC6675094
fatcat:7pzwilnpqfegtmjclzjypzznu4
Alternatives and attention in language and reasoning: A reply to Mascarenhas & Picat 2019
2022
Semantics and Pragmatics
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In this paper, we employ an experimental paradigm using insights from the psychology of reasoning to investigate the question whether certain modals generate and draw attention to alternatives. ...
We apply the same methodology to the English modal allowed to to test different hypotheses regarding the involvement of alternatives in deontic modality. ...
Targets John might have stolen from the rich and given to the poor John stole from the rich John gave to the poor Daniel was allowed to skip a day of work and go to a march in Washington Daniel skipped ...
doi:10.3765/sp.15.2
fatcat:qf7gfylrkzgkbnwcec2nvejcve
Toward a Unified Theory of Reasoning
[chapter]
2013
The psychology of learning and motivation
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In all these cases, a central principle is that the mind represents each sort of possibility in a separate mental model and infers whatever holds in the resulting set of models. ...
It shows how models underlie inductions, explanations, estimates of probabilities, and informal algorithms. ...
SES 0844851 to the first author to study deductive and probabilistic reasoning and by a National Research Council Research Associateship to the second author. ...
doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-407187-2.00001-0
fatcat:papxduk7abbvroxiatrtrmww7a
Multiple Exchanges of Job Orders for No-Buffer Job Shop Scheduling Problem
2012
Journal of Advanced Mechanical Design, Systems, and Manufacturing
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An extended disjunctive graph, which has reverse conjunctive arcs connecting two consecutive processes, is introduced to identify the operations preventing the feasibility of such a schedule. ...
The modifications are to correct the infeasibility caused by exchanging two consecutive operations on the same machine. ...
Journal of Advanced Mechanical Design, Systems, and Manufacturing Vol. 6, No.5, 2012
Improvement of a Schedule by Local Search In order to indicate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure, a ...
doi:10.1299/jamdsm.6.661
fatcat:jgtrfxsrpjhrzbhefwjtg2t63e
Conditioning on Disjunctive Knowledge: Defaults and Probabilities
[article]
2013
arXiv
pre-print
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To represent and reason about this case, default logicians must specify how a "typical" individual is selected. The problem is closely related to Simpson's paradox of probability theory. ...
If we accept a simple probabilistic account of defaults based on the notion that one proposition may favour or increase belief in another, the "multiple extension problem" for both conjunctive and disjunctive ...
Acknowledgements This work resulted in part from years of dis· cussion with David Poole, Romas Aleliunas, and ...
arXiv:1304.1521v1
fatcat:4hurbxggcnbltg22q67fdz4ecm
Diverse confidence levels in a probabilistic semantics for conditional logics
1999
Artificial Intelligence
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It has long been known that several popular default and conditional logics exactly describe infinitesimal probability constructs which betoken virtual certainty regarding the truth of one sentence if some ...
This class can be extended by straightforward algebra so that the range of confidence levels expressed by standard probability distributions which are exactly described by the rules is as complete as for ...
The same reasoning shows that if the order of the top atoms were reversed, then the order of the disjunctions would be, too. ...
doi:10.1016/s0004-3702(99)00054-5
fatcat:llq7euqywbg23d7b36tdkz5eoe
The domain specificity and generality of disjunctive reasoning: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill
2002
Journal of Educational Psychology
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The domain specificity and generality of an important critical thinking skill was examined by administering 9 reasoning and decision-making tasks to 125 adults. ...
Performance across these disjunctive reasoning tasks displayed considerable domain specificity, but 5 of the tasks displayed moderate convergence. ...
(The effect in the knights and knaves task was marginal.) ...
doi:10.1037//0022-0663.94.1.197
fatcat:luckmiffgvavjfzfs67gcg2qr4
Decision Theory with Prospect Interference and Entanglement
[article]
2011
arXiv
pre-print
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The conjunction fallacy is also shown to be a sufficient condition for the disjunction effect and novel experiments testing the combined interplay between the two effects are suggested. ...
A series of experiments are analysed and shown to be in excellent agreement with a priori evaluation of interference effects. ...
Yukalova for many discussions and useful advice. We also acknowledge helpful correspondence with P.A. Benioff, J.R. Busemeyer, and Y. Malevergne. ...
arXiv:1102.2738v1
fatcat:keyxduuzwngyznqwpricq7fyam
The domain specificity and generality of disjunctive reasoning: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill
2002
Journal of Educational Psychology
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The domain specificity and generality of an important critical thinking skill was examined by administering 9 reasoning and decision-making tasks to 125 adults. ...
Performance across these disjunctive reasoning tasks displayed considerable domain specificity, but 5 of the tasks displayed moderate convergence. ...
(The effect in the knights and knaves task was marginal.) ...
doi:10.1037/0022-0663.94.1.197
fatcat:76h2xjyuebdstmosrva5ljexpm
A genetic-algorithm for discovering small-disjunct rules in data mining
2002
Applied Soft Computing
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We present results comparing the predictive accuracy of this hybrid system with the prediction accuracy of three versions of C4.5 alone in eight public domain data sets. ...
In the context of data mining, small disjuncts are rules covering a small number of examples. Hence, these rules are usually error-prone, which contributes to a decrease in predictive accuracy. ...
When S = 15 the hybrid system is significantly better than C4.5 in 3 data sets, and the reverse is true in one data set. ...
doi:10.1016/s1568-4946(02)00031-5
fatcat:av7ifipllng7jbbt7ppdfo7vvu
Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory
2009
Entropy
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The self-consistent procedure of decision making, in the frame of the quantum decision theory, takes into account both the available objective information as well as subjective contextual effects. ...
The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. ...
We acknowledge a helpful and illuminating correspondence with P.A. Benioff and J.R. Busemeyer, which helped us to essentially improve the presentation of the developed approach. ...
doi:10.3390/e11041073
fatcat:ayrn4ggu5ja5dgft5wzsze4rxe
Page 2815 of Psychological Abstracts Vol. 84, Issue 7
[page]
1997
Psychological Abstracts
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The strengths and weaknesses of depictive gestural modeling and more analytic systems of reasoning are delineated to motivate the reasons for these transitions.
21362. ...
To test for bootstrapping, 198 undergraduates were asked to es- timate probabilities of elementary statements and some of their conjunctive and disjunctive combinations in 2 domains for
84: 21355-21362 ...
Logic, probability, and human reasoning
2015
Trends in Cognitive Sciences
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This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. ...
The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. ...
This research was supported by a Jerome and Isabella Karle Fellowship from the Naval Research Laboratory to S.S.K. ...
doi:10.1016/j.tics.2015.02.006
pmid:25770779
fatcat:7wajljj7qfhuzhhjoxx7zd3dea
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